在国际航运界,BDI指数就像纳斯达克指数、道琼斯指数一样,被人们称之为经济的晴雨表。
该指数由伦敦波罗的海航运交易所发布。而波罗的海航交所则是世界上历史最悠久的航运市场。1744年,它诞生于英国佛吉尼亚波罗的海咖啡屋,目前交易所则设在英国伦敦。经过260多年的发展,波罗的海航交所已经成为最著名的国际性海运、船舶买卖市场。当前全球46个国家和地区的656家公司都是波罗的海航交所的会员,大约有2000多名员工代表公司在交易所里进行各项交易。
BDI是干散货综合指数,其中好望角型、巴拿马型、大灵便型和小灵便型市场各占1/4权重,它是反映干散货市场的总体趋势。但对具体某一船型,某一航线,BDI的参考意义是有限的。波罗的海交易所,每日发布BDI外,还发布不同船型的典型航线日租金水平,对具体的某个货载,它更有针对性。
例如,国内某电厂,要求对澳大利亚GLADSTONE港至中国北仑港,70,000MT(10%增减由船东选择)电煤报海运价,装卸时间包干7天。如何报?保本的运费计算为:
运费收入 = 营运成本
即:
运价 X 货量 = 日租金 X 航次总天数 + 燃油费 + 港使费 (*)
其中
(1)波罗的海标准巴拿马型船舶规范,载重吨为74000MT,除去油、水和常数,可装载货量约为72000MT
(2)波罗的海7月13日发布的巴拿马型船太平洋往返航线日租金为USD 18667/天
(3)航次总天数为 航行天 加 在港天(7天)。航行天可以用以下公式求得: (北仑港-GLADSTONE港-北仑港)总里程/巴拿马型散货船航速 假定航次总天数经计算为35天
(4)根据船舶耗油规范,求得航次总耗油量,乘以加油港(北仑港)油价,可以求得航次总耗油费用,假定为USD 500,000
(5)港使费,经向代理公司咨询,GLADSTONE港为USD 60,000,北仑港为 USD 45,000
那么公式(*)为:
运价 X 72000MT = USD 18667/天 X 35天 + USD 500,000 + USD 105,000
求得:
运价 = USD 17.47/MT
这样,考虑到预留利润,你可以向该电厂报价USD 18.00/MT,这应该是和当前市场水平比较接近的。也可以考虑市场近期的上升,和下跌趋势,采用不同的报价策略。
以上是较粗略的估计,实践中还有很多变数。例如港口压港情况,滞期费的高低,台风多发季节对船期的影响,油价的涨跌趋势,市场租金的涨跌趋势,该航线是否有冰区、战区等保险费用,等等。总之,资料掌握的越充分,计算就越准确,可以在保证航次收益的前提下,报出最有竞争力的价格。
例如,国内的连云港似乎还在收取速遣费QDA(约RMB1.0/MT),其他港口基本不收取。如果该航次是连云港卸货,计算时应该多考虑增加成本RMB 72000 元,计入运价。
以下为一实例:
Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices 13 July 2009 Baltic Exchange Dry Index TM 2975 (DOWN 10) Baltic Exchange Capesize Index TM 4788 (DOWN 56) Baltic Exchange Panamax Index TM 2955 (UP 3) Baltic Exchange Supramax Index TM 1834 (UP 17) Baltic Exchange Handysize Index TM 800 (UP 6) BCI Average of the T/C routes $50594 (DOWN 629) BPI Average of the T/C routes $23639 (UP 24) BSI Average of the T/C routes $19174 (UP 172) BHSI Average of the T/C routes $11473 (UP 86) Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 4788 (DOWN 56) C2 160000lt Tubarao -Rotterdam 10 17.941 -0.127 C3 160000mt Tubarao - Qingdao 15 31.313 0.100 C4 150000mt Richards Bay - Rotterdam 5 14.432 -0.159 C5 160000mt W Australia - Qingdao 15 12.886 -0.296 C7 150000mt Bolivar - Rotterdam 5 18.845 -0.150 C8_03 172000mt Gib/Hamburg trans Atlantic RV 10 57955 -454 C9_03 172000mt Continent/Med trip Far East 5 71500 -308 C10_03 172000mt Pacific RV 20 45046 -1208 C11_03 172000mt China/Japan trip Med/Cont 5 27875 -546 C12 150000mt Gladstone - Rotterdam 10 22.260 -0.195 Average of the T/C Routes 50594 -629 Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 2955 (UP 3) P1A_03 74000mt Transatlantic RV 25 30135 220 P2A_03 74000mt SKAW-GIB/FAR EAST 25 35583 112 P3A_03 74000mt Japan-SK/Pacific/RV 25 18667 -131 P4_03 74000mt FAR EAST/NOPAC-AUST/SK-PASS 25 10170 -105 Average of the T/C Routes 23639 24 Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1834 (UP 17) S1A Antwerp - Skaw Trip Far East 12.5 30911 322 S1B Canakkale Trip Far East 12.5 30475 120 S2 Japan - SK / NOPAC or Australia rv 25 14704 114 S3 Japan - SK Trip Gib - Skaw range 25 7833 107 S4A US Gulf - Skaw-Passero 12.5 32736 342 S4B Skaw-Passero - US Gulf 12.5 14194 150 S5 W.Africa via ECSA to FarEast 0 27383 277 S6 Jpn-SK trip via Aus/India 0 14300 35 S7 EC India - China 0 20572 239 Average of the T/C Routes 19174 172 Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 800 (UP 6) HS1 Skaw-Pass trip Recalada - Rio de Jan 12.5 10193 93 HS2 Skaw - Pass trip Boston – Galveston 12.5 10129 115 HS3 Recalada – Rio de Jan trip Skaw–Pass 12.5 14033 66 HS4 USG trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw–Pass 12.5 19294 94 HS5 SE Asia trip via Australia to Sing–Jpn 25 9869 69 HS6 S Korea – Japan via NOPAC to Sing-Jpn 25 9200 93 Average of the T/C Routes 11473 86 TIMECHARTER 'Christina' 2007 77073 dwt dely Xingang 12/15 July trip via EC Australia redel Taiwan $19000 daily - China Steel Express - <recent> 'Nordmosel' 2001 75257 dwt dely Sines 17/20 July trip via Prodeco redel Le Havre $32500 daily - Cetragpa 'Renuar' 1993 70516 dwt dely retro PMO 4 July trip via EC South America redel Far East $26000 daily - cnr 'Aristides N.P.' 1993 69268 dwt dely Chiba spot trip via NoPac redel S.Korea $18000 daily - Alfred C.Toepfer 'Darya Bhakti' 2005 56045 dwt dely Kandla 13/14 July trip redel China approx $22250 daily - cnr 'Lake Dynasty' 2009 55650 dwt dely Japan 16/18 July trip via East Coast Australia redel South Korea approx $17000 daily - cnr 'City' 2007 53352 dwt dely Chennai 14/16 July trip redel China approx $20000 daily - Seawin - <adds charterer to report 10/07> 'Emperor' 1986 38870 dwt dely passing Canakkale 9/12 July trip redel Nigeria intention bulk cement $13750 daily - Nom (UK) Ltd 'Bright Ocean 2' 1999 32128 dwt dely Ho Chi Minh 13 July trip via Australia redel Singapore-Japan rge $10000 daily - Armada 'Hanjin Penang' 1997 27364 dwt dely Singapore spot trip via Australia redel Taiwan approx $8500 daily - cnr PERIOD 'COS Intrepid' 2001 74119 dwt dely Thailand 30 July/5 Aug 4/6 months trading redel worldwide $20000 daily - Farenco 'Shi Dai 3' 1994 69659 dwt dely Far East end July 4/6 months trading redel worldwide $18000 daily - cnr 'Bao Wealth' 2009 57000 dwt dely ex yard Zhenjiang August 09 12 months trading redel worldwide $17000 daily - Chinese charterer 'Aston Trader 2' Rizzo Bottiglieri De Carlini Armatores relet 2008 55456 dwt dely Xingang 8/11 July 11/13 months trading redel worldwide approx $16800 daily - Eastern Ocean - <replaces report of 30/06> 'Crown Princess' 2005 52347 dwt dely Otranto prompt 2/4 months trading redel Atlantic $19750 daily - cnr ORE 'TBN' 160000/10 Sepetiba/Qingdao 10/20 Aug $32.00 fio scale/30000sc - RGL 'Cosco Hong Kong TBN' 160000/10 Esperance/Qingdao 24 July/2 Aug approx $17.00 fio scale/30000sc - Sinoeast COAL 'TBN' Norfolk/Iskenderun - <reported 10/07 the charterer is Cerraghil not Sigma>
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