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2021年第27周国际干散货运输市场评述

  • 2021-7-13 13:44:37
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本周的重大新闻是,美国总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)将采取行政措施,在铁路和海运行业中创造更多竞争,以解决困扰零售商,抬高价格的供应链问题。
在去年疫情最严重时期,消费者的习惯发生了重大转变,扰乱了许多供应链。该措施已与联邦海事委员会(FMC)和水面运输委员会(STB)联合提出解决方案。
目前还不清楚这项措施何时会获得批准,但预计此举将为美国企业节省运输成本,并为美国消费者降低价格。
中国经济已经从疫情的影响中复苏,最近的数据显示,过去15个月的消费水平相当高。然而,最近发布的PMI暗指,未来几个月中国经济面临的阻力将不断加大。
尽管有放缓的迹象,但6月份的PMI显示仍处于增长,这表明中国经济健康状况良好,为全球经济复苏提供了有力的支持。随着发展可能会使需求更多地转向服务,而不是商品,因此减少了中国出口订单。在服务和建筑业不景气的同时,出口行业推动了疫情后复苏的初期阶段,因而在国内经济复苏时出现了两种速度的反弹。
中国的领导人担心中国国内经济没有全速运转,而这对于他们为五年计划设定的经济自主权至关重要。
对大宗商品的需求依然强劲,因为在天气变暖后,电力需求激增,与此同时,中国的钢铁产量持续走高,煤炭库存不断减少。
最近一段时间,由于安全检查,中国煤炭生产出现了长时间的延误,加上中国共产党成立周年纪念日,煤矿暂停生产,允许矿工参加庆祝活动。由于供应紧张,价格不断上涨,煤矿获准扩大其业务。情况可能还需要一段时间才能好转。
 
海岬型:(Capesize:)
在大西洋地区需求疲软的情况下,太平洋地区在周中也出现了下滑。随着中国共产党的庆祝活动席卷全国,由于活动推迟和整个供应链的压力,工业活动和原材料需求放缓。庆祝活动结束后,预计运价将回升。与此同时,中国政府已将安徽、江苏等地今年的钢铁产量降至去年的水平。随着限制措施的实施,时间会证明价格和利润率是否会因钢铁产量下降而上升。
 
巴拿马型/卡姆萨尔型:(Panamax / Kamsarmax:)
俄罗斯减少对欧天然气供应,引发了对T/A煤炭的强劲需求,推动市场飙升。俄罗斯减少对欧的天然气供应,欧洲国家有望开会批准新的天然气管道“北溪2号”。本周末时,巴拿马型大部分主要航线的运价都有所下降。其中大西洋航线降幅最大,收盘价为42900美元/天。CIS往返价也有所下降,收于31500美元。
 
大灵便型/超灵便型:(Supramax / Ultramax:
大西洋市场仍处于上升趋势,太平洋市场因上升势头减弱正在进行修正。曾引领太平洋地区煤炭贸易的中国,需求已过顶峰。由于可再生能源发电量的季节性增长,煤炭进口预计也将减少。太平洋往返价下跌,周五收于29,700美元/天。从美湾出来的去程价上升到38,325美元。
 
灵便型:(Handysize::
大西洋板块依然吃紧,周五收盘时大西洋板块收于25,400美元。尽管7月4日周末USG活动有限,但大陆的货物仍支持该盆地。由于大吨位对船东有利,太平洋航运也出现了下跌,
r/v收于2.42万美元。 
 
 

散货船12个月期租平均水平(美元/天)
 
载重吨
目前
上周
上年
周同比
年同比
CAPE
180,000
29,875
29,500
18,500
+1.27
+61.49
PANAMA
75,000
28,375
27,850
12,500
+1.89
+127
SUPRAMAX
52,000
25,500
25,250
10,250
+0.99
+148.78
HANDYSIZE
32,000
23,000
22,300
9,000
+3.14
+155.56

 
 
 
 
 
The big news this week was that President Joe Biden would take executive action to create more competition among the rail and ocean shipping industries in an effort to address supply chain issues that are retailers and driving prices up for consumers.
Consumer habits has shifted significantly during the height of the pandemic last year, disrupting many supply chains. The order has tap onto Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) and the Surface Transportation Board (STB) to come up with solutions.
It is unclear yet when this action will call to approve but it is predicted that the move will save American businesses money on shipping costs and lower prices for American consumers.
Dry Bulk
The Chinese economy has rebounded from the pandemic's effects, with recent data showing sizable levels for the last 15 months. However, the recent Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) implies escalating headwinds for the economy in the coming months.
Despite signs of respite, June's PMI readings are still in the growth zone, signaling good health for the Chinese economy with continuous support provided to the ongoing global economic recovery. This development is likely to move demand more towards services rather than goods, hence reducing Chinese exports order. While the service and construction sectors dawdled, the export industry propels the early stages of the post-pandemic recovery, thus resulting in a two-speed rebound as the domestic economic activities catch up.
Beijing's leaders are worried that the Chinese domestic economy is not firing on all cylinders, which is paramount for the economic autonomy set for their 5-year plan.
Demand for commodities remains sturdy as the surge in electricity demand following warm weather coincides with continued high steel production, seeing the nation's coal inventories dwindling.
In recent times, Chinese coal productions have experienced prolonged delays caused by safety inspections and coupled with the Communist Party anniversary, coal Star Asia Shipbroking Pte Ltd ( www.star-asia.com.sg ) mines are halting their operations to allow miners to participate in the celebrations. With the tight supply situation and escalating prices, mines are permitted to expand their operations. It will likely be some time before the situation improves.
Capesize:
Amid sluggish demand in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific also saw levels slipped in the middle of the week. With the China Communist Party celebrations sweeping across the country, industrial activity and demand for raw materials slowed down due to delayed activities and pressure across the supply chain. Levels are expected to resume after celebrations. Meanwhile, the Chinese Government has reduced steel production this year to the level of last year in areas such as Anhui and Jiangsu provinces. With the implementation of restrictive measures, time will tell if prices and margins will rise due to a decrease in steel production.
Panamax / Kamsarmax:
Strong demand for T/A coal, triggered by Russia's reduction in natural gas supply to Europe, saw the market surge. Russia's reduction of gas supply to Europe is expected to be met by European countries for approval of the new gas pipeline 'Nord Stream 2'. Levels in most main Panamaxes routes saw levels slipped at the close of the week. The biggest being the Transatlantic route which closed at $42,900 / day. Cis r/v also saw levels fell, settling at US$31,500 region.
Supramax / Ultramax:
The upward trend in the Atlantic Ocean continues, as the Pacific Ocean undergoes correction as the upward momentum weakens. Demand from China, which had led the coal trade in the Pacific region, has passed its peak. Coal imports is also expected to decrease due to seasonal growth in renewable energy generation. Pacific r/v slipped at Friday's closing as levels closed at $29,700 / day. Fronthaul saw levels climb with a trip out of USG in the regions of $38,325.
 
Handysize:
The Atlantic segment remains tight, with Transatlantic levels in US$25,400 at closing on Friday. Cargoes in the Continent support the basin despite limited activity in the USG following the 4th of July weekend. Pacific also saw levels dipped as r/v closed at $24,200 region as excess tonnage favour the owners while they hold out.
 
 

散货船12个月期租平均水平(美元/天)
 
载重吨
目前
上周
上年
周同比
年同比
CAPE
180,000
29,875
29,500
18,500
+1.27
+61.49
PANAMA
75,000
28,375
27,850
12,500
+1.89
+127
SUPRAMAX
52,000
25,500
25,250
10,250
+0.99
+148.78
HANDYSIZE
32,000
23,000
22,300
9,000
+3.14
+155.56

 

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